Who Can Win the European November Major?

Ever since August, BDS Esport have dominated the standings and most of their matches. In the Rainbow Six November Major, they will face Empire, Tempra, and Virtus.pro. Can they set themselves on top of these teams to win their second Major in a row?

Since August, the Frenchmen have undoubtedly been the best European team. With the August Major, a second place finish in EUL Stage 1, and a dominant first place in the second stage, they are miles ahead of any other team.

Their 22 points put them two match victories above the next highest team. Aside from a draw versus Vitality and a loss to Natus Vincere, they have plowed through their opponents – which includes their competitors in the upcoming Major.

Empire and Tempra have only narrowly made it to the Top 4 courtesy of upset victories over Team Secret and G2 Esports. Until the second-to-last play-day, they weren’t even regarded as Major prospects, but the actual favorites choked in their very last matches. Virtus.pro had enough of a headstart that their duel with BDS Esport wasn’t a must-win. Still, they gave their all and landed five solid rounds on Coastline. This means that, from the entire Major playing field, they’re the ones who got closest to BDS. Empire and Tempra lost their games to the Frenchmen on 2-7 and 1-7 scorelines, respectively.

These results indicate that BDS should start preparing a new showcase spot in their trophy room. But if there’s one thing that we have learned from the North American Major, it’s that we should be cautious with these kinds of numbers. Just because a team performed well during the regular season doesn’t mean that this will automatically translate into a great Major performance.

WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED FROM THE NA MAJOR?

In August, we witnessed DarkZero dethroning the world’s #1 team, Spacestation Gaming. Obviously, this was due to a massive improvement on the players’ side, but their preparation was another huge factor. Between NAL and the Major, the underdogs had plenty of time to ready themselves.

The same holds true for Empire, Tempra, and Virtus.pro. The former two have sufficiently proven their upset potential. On top of that, all three have had lots of preparation time to find errors and openings in BDS’ approach to the game.

But is there really a lot to find? With the exception of a few maps, the Frenchmen haven’t dropped any meaningful games since August. Maybe there just aren’t enough holes in the strategy of BDS to really counter them. After months of consistent performance, it is also highly unlikely that the players will fail to show up individually. Unlike Rogue, who suddenly played way below their usual level in the August Major, BDS have consistently held their own in the league. Their gameplan is obviously working out just fine.

In their Opening Match, BDS will be facing Virtus.pro. Historically, the Russians have been their biggest opponent in this bracket and if the Frenchmen win this, they might be looking at a rather quick Grand Finals entry already. Should they arrive there with a map advantage, it will be hard for the other teams to make a dash for the trophy – if not entirely impossible.