The International 12 meta up until this point

The International 12 is being played on Dota 2 patch 7.34d. This patch is pretty well balanced all things considered, and Dotabuff’s statistics clearly prove this.

Among the most picked heroes in the tournament, only a small number of them have had unusually high or unusually low win rates. Most heroes gravitate between 45% and 55%, which is the expected result.

Unusually successful picks

Among the heroes that excel we have the following 10:

• Chaos Knight: 32 games, 65.6% win rate
• Muerta: 41 games, 56.1% win rate
• Primal Beast: 27 games, 63% win rate
• Spirit Breaker: 32 games, 56.2% win rate
• Spectre: 16 games, 81.2% win rate
• Ancient Apparition: 26 games, 69.2% win rate
• Dazzle: 16 games, 68.7% win rate
• Naga Siren: 15 games, 66.7% win rate
• Enchantress: 18 games, 61.1% win rate
• Storm Spirit: 6 games, 100% win rate

Needless to say, the meta revolves around and is being shaped by these heroes. Others are also on the list, but these are constantly picked or banned and every match is almost guaranteed to have at least a few of them.

So far, we’ve seen Naga Siren winning some impossible games, and Dazzle dominating as a core. Lots of things changed after the release of Dota 2 patch 7.34d and we’re now experiencing the reasoning of the world’s best teams.

These teams understand the game extremely well, so if they decide to pick a hero over and over again and actually manage to win, that’s a sign that you should be picking that hero as well in your pubs. If you don’t do it, someone else will.

The most impressive carry hero so far has been Spectre. Winning 4 out of 5 games is impossibly high at this level, so we should expect to see some nerfs right after the end of TI12.

IceFrog is probably taking notes right now and wondering what needs to be done to bring the win rates of some of these heroes lower. Spectre has already been nerfed multiple times in the last few patches. But her item build is super strong thanks to Blade Mail’s efficiency and Radiance’s low cost.

If you manage to buy those two items, the game is already won in most cases. It takes perfect coordination to counter a farmed Spectre and most teams don’t have it, even at the professional level. In pubs, the situation is far worse.

Unusually unsuccessful picks

A lot of teams have tried and failed to keep the 7.34c meta alive, picking heroes that are now much weaker than before. The statistics speak for themselves:

• Sven: 25 games, 36% win rate
• Centaur Warrunner: 23 games, 43.5% win rate
• Pangolier: 31 games, 32.2% win rate
• Shadow Demon: 28 games, 28.6% win rate
• Vengeful Spirit: 35 games, 40% win rate
• Faceless Void: 17 games, 41.2% win rate
• Tidehunter: 17 games, 41.2% win rate
• Templar Assassin: 15 games, 33.3% win rate
• Warlock: 14 games, 28.6% win rate
• Keeper of the Light: 14 games, 28.6% win rate

All of these heroes used to be amazing in the previous patch. Now they’re a liability in most cases. What’s strange is that it took a long time for most teams to figure out this fact. As you can see, these heroes didn’t get picked just a few times. They got picked numerous times and failed spectacularly in most cases.

Now that the new meta is known, it will be interesting to see what the last eight teams will pick at TI12 during the weekend matches that will determine the new world champion.

Ignored heroes

So far, we have not seen a single Huskar game. We also haven’t seen Drow Ranger, Ursa, Anti-Mage, and Mars. All of these heroes used to be very popular.

Other heroes that have appeared in just several matches are these:

• Juggernaut
• Venomancer
• Ember Spirit
• Lich
• Void Spirit
• Nyx Assassin
• Leshrac
• Underlord
• Broodmother
• Witch Doctor
• Bounty Hunter
• Lycan
• Marci
• Mirana
• Legion Commander
• Sand King
• Bloodseeker
• Disruptor
• IO
• Sniper
• Bane
• Visage
• Death Prophet
• Queen of Pain
• Snapfire
• Enigma
• Razor
• Phantom Lancer
• Crystal Maiden
• Clinkz
• Magnus

Just look at all these highly popular heroes! They were almost completely ignored by the teams and it’s not obvious why. Of course, they probably know the answer from their training sessions and their scrims. But we don’t. All we can see is that nobody picks certain heroes and there’s very little interest in banning them.

In theory, many of them aren’t that bad. But at the highest competitive level, they probably lack something vital to a team’s success. Or maybe they have bad timings and highly exploitable weaknesses.

Hopefully, the final three days of The International 12 will show us new drafts and new strategies that can be used to win on this patch.

Header: Valve