TI 10 Predictions for the Western Europe Qualifier

The Western Europe Qualifier for The International 10 is scheduled to take part between July 7^th – 10^th. Its winner will receive the last remaining ticket to The International and a lot of great teams are part of this race.

Western European Qualifier Participants

The number of teams that will take part in Western Europe’s Qualifier for TI 10 is 14. These teams are listed below:

Team Nigma
Team Liquid
Tundra Esports
OG
gg
Brame
Spider Pigz
Hellbear Smashers
Ghost Frogs
Team Bald Reborn
Into The Breach
No Bounty Hunter
Chicken Fighters
Hippomaniacs

No less than half of these teams have a real chance of winning the tournament. I will analyze them one by one.

Team Nigma

After winning The International in 2017 and playing in the Grand Final of two other editions of the tournament (including the one from 2019), KuroKy is now forced to earn his spot in the event by competing against his European colleagues. This is an unfortunate situation but at least he goes into this race as the favorite.

Nigma finished the regular season with 670 points. The last directly invited team to TI 10 had 800. In both seasons, KuroKy’s squad finished 3^rd (regionally) and then participated in the Major. And the main reason why they are here is that they failed to get a top 8 result at the first of these Majors. In Singapore, they finished 16^th and received 0 points as a result. But at WePlay AniMajor they finished 5^th – 6^th.

Normally, based on its performance at its most recent Major, Nigma should be regarded as the clear favorite. But some worrying signs exist. For instance, at ESL One Summer 2021, a $400,000 that took place right after the Major, the team finished 7^th – 8^th at was eliminated by one of the competitors that will take part in the Western Europe Qualifier for The International 10. OG won the match with a score of 2 – 1 and proved to be much stronger with Sumail than people had expected.

Team Liquid

Team Liquid finished the two seasons of DPC 2021 in 4th and 2nd place respectively. But they failed to score any points at the Majors, so they are now in a very uncomfortable position. A Western European Qualifier for TI 10 is something that no team wants to go through.

Blitz is the coach of this squad but even he must feel overwhelmed by the task in front of him. At the last two tournaments that he participated in, Liquid lost against Nigma, Tundra, and OG. And they will most likely face some of these opponents in the qualifier.

For me, Team Liquid is one of the top 3 teams with the highest chances of winning the tournament. But I don’t think they’ll succeed.

OG

OG lost ana right after the second Major and replaced him with Sumail. The team is relatively stable now, but it has a huge mountain to climb. The good news is that it managed to defeat both Liquid and Nigma at the recent ESL One Summer 2021. Ceb and his crew then lost against Alliance, but Alliance will not be present at this qualifier because they already received a direct invite to TI 10.

OG’s first match will be against Vikin.gg, the winner of the Lower Division. This is a very strong team at the moment, so they’ll have to play their best to stay in the Upper Bracket. But if they do succeed, their next opponent will almost certainly be Nigma. So there’s no way to avoid the big boss. Either OG is stronger than Nigma and Liquid and will qualify by defeating these teams, or they will not go to The International this year.

Tundra Esports

FATA’s team has struggled to keep up with the giants in this region throughout the season and this will be his final chance to do something big this year. Based on Tundra’s most recent results, I think the odds of success are low. There are simply too many teams in this qualifier that are statistically better than them. And even in terms of individual skill, a player like 33 can hardly be compared with one like Sumail.

There’s still some room for surprises. Between ESL One Summer 2021 and the Western European Qualifier for The International 10 there’s a 3-week break. And as you probably know, 3 weeks of training can change a team’s playstyle completely. This is the reason why we can’t be sure who will come out ahead until we see the teams compete against each other. Only then we will know who’s preparation has been the most effective.

Vikin.gg

Vikin.gg played multiple Grand Finals of tier 3 events this year and also competed in the two seasons of DPC 2021. The team finished Season 1 in 7^th place (Upper Division) and Season 2 in 1^st place (Lower Division). But it also got some excellent results in other tournaments, such as Pinnacle Cup (3^rd) and ESL One Summer 2021 (5^th – 6^th).

Vikin.gg’s results improved significantly after KheZu joined the team. This former Secret player is a very strong offlaner and could have a big impact on the qualifier. But I’m still doubtful that Vikin.gg can upset the likes of Nigma and OG. Even if they succeed in defeating some of the great teams that stand against them, they won’t be able to beat them all.

Brame

Much of Brame’s roster is made up of former Ad Finem players. So in terms of experience, this team is doing more than fine. The main issue seems to be the synergy between the 5 members of the roster. I’m not sure how well these players can communicate with each other when 3 of them are Greek, one is Georgian, and one Bulgarian. No doubt, the Greek players would much rather communicate in their own language and use their mental bandwidth to think about the decisions they need to make during the game.

Brame started this season by getting 2^nd place in Western Europe’s Lower Division and then 7^th place in the region’s Upper Division. In effect, they tried and failed to compete against Europe’s best. In recent months, the skill division became even more obvious. With some exceptions, Brame’s results against tier 1 teams have been poor. But, as I mentioned in Tundra’s case, we should wait and see what the team has learned during the Bootcamp.

Hellbear Smashers

Hellbear Smashers won Western Europe’s Lower Division and then lost all of its 7 matches in the Upper Division. Much like Brame, the team lacks strong leadership and some vital ingredients. I have no doubt that rASmus and Ace will fail to qualify for The International 10. But perhaps they’ll succeed in causing trouble. Also, given that rASmus (MISERY) is turning 30 in just a few weeks, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him retire after this tournament. The last 4 years have been a complete failure for him.

Photo credit: Valve